The sequential propensity household projection model

Abstract

BACKGROUND The standard method of projecting living arrangements and households in Australia and New Zealand is the 'propensity model', a type of extended headship rate model. Unfortunately it possesses a number of serious shortcomings, including internal inconsistencies, difficulties in setting living arrangement assumptions, and very limited scenario creation capabilities. Data allowing the application of more sophisticated dynamic household projection models are unavailable in Australia. OBJECTIVE The aim was to create a projection model to overcome these shortcomings, whilst minimising input data requirements and costs and retaining the projection outputs users are familiar with. METHODS..