Subnational population forecasts: Do users want to know about uncertainty?

Abstract

BACKGROUND Subnational population forecasts form a key input to many significant investment and planning decisions, but these forecasts are often subject to considerable amounts of uncertainty, even in the short run. This uncertainty is rarely quantified at the subnational scale, and little attention has been given to how uncertainty can be effectively communicated to users. OBJECTIVE We wished to find out if users of subnational population forecasts want to know about forecast uncertainty, their understanding of uncertainty, and their views on various methods of communicating it. METHODS An online survey of users of population forecasts in Australia was undertaken, followed by focus gr..