Journal article

Temporal Model of the Drivers of Household PV Purchase in Australia

Glen Currie, Robin Evans, Colin Duffield, Iven Mareels

Technology and Economics of Smart Grids and Sustainable Energy | Springer Science and Business Media LLC | Published : 2019

Abstract

Australian household PV adoption rates are the highest in the world and this is causing a rise in technical problems and the cost of the distribution system. This paper offers a predictive model of household PV purchases in Australia and this could be used in policy to better manage PV uptake patterns. The analysis used 1.6 million domestic PV installation decisions over 11 years from 2006 to 2017 and is statistically significant. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling was used to reduce non-stationarity in the data and Granger Causal modelling showed the most effective policy levers are price, subsidy, business confidence and PV feed-in tariffs. This analysis develops a ..

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