Regional hotspots of temperature extremes under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C of global mean warming

Abstract

Local- and regional-scale heat extremes can increase at a significantly greater rate than global mean changes, presenting challenges for human health, infrastructure, industry and ecosystems. We examine changes in regional absolute temperature extremes for a suite of global regions under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming above pre-industrial levels, as described by the Paris Agreement. We focus on area-average values of observed monthly averages of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in 12 regions and calculate the most extreme monthly records observed. Next, using a large ensemble (HAPPI; Half a Degree Additional warming, Prognosis, and Projected Impacts) of decade-long simulations both of the ..