Journal article

The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to C4MIP: quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions

Chris D Jones, Thomas L Froelicher, Charles Koven, Andrew H MacDougall, H Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Joeri Rogelj, Katarzyna B Tokarska, Nathan P Gillett, Tatiana Ilyina, Malte Meinshausen, Nadine Mengis, Roland Seferian, Michael Eby, Friedrich A Burger

Geoscientific Model Development | COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH | Published : 2019


The amount of additional future temperature change following a complete cessation of CO2 emissions is a measure of the unrealized warming to which we are committed due to CO2 already emitted to the atmosphere. This "zero emissions commitment" (ZEC) is also an important quantity when estimating the remaining carbon budget - a limit on the total amount of CO2 emissions consistent with limiting global mean temperature at a particular level. In the recent IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C, the carbon budget framework used to calculate the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C included the assumption that the ZEC due to CO2 emissions is negligible and close to zero. Previous research has..

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University of Melbourne Researchers


Awarded by European Commission

Funding Acknowledgements

This research has been supported by the European Commission (grant no. CRESCENDO (641816)).