Journal article

An evaluation of ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal climate forecasts for Australia using a new forecast calibration algorithm

QJ Wang, Y Shao, Y Song, A Schepen, DE Robertson, D Ryu, F Pappenberger

Environmental Modelling & Software | Elsevier | Published : 2019

Abstract

The commencement of SEAS5 model for operational seasonal climate forecasting by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is a new development. It replaces the ECMWF System 4, which had a large international community of seasonal climate forecast users. To assist potential users of SEAS5 forecasts, a systematic and detailed evaluation of forecast skill and reliability of climate variables over land areas is valuable. In this regional study, we evaluate SEAS5 performance in forecasting precipitation and daily minimum temperature (Tmin) and daily maximum temperature (Tmax) for the Australian continent, based on 36 years of re-forecast data. We evaluate forecasts after simp..

View full abstract

Grants

Funding Acknowledgements

We thank the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for providing the SEAS5 and System 4 data. The data for SEAS5 can be obtained through the Copernicus Climate Data store (cds. climate.copernicus.eu). Florian Pappenberger acknowledges funding by the YCopernicus program which supported the production of SEAS5 hindcasts. We thank the Bureau of Meteorology for AWAP data used in this study.