Journal article

Attributing long-term sea-level rise to Paris Agreement emission pledges

Alexander Nauels, Johannes Guetschow, Matthias Mengel, Malte Meinshausen, Peter U Clark, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA | NATL ACAD SCIENCES | Published : 2019

Abstract

The main contributors to sea-level rise (oceans, glaciers, and ice sheets) respond to climate change on timescales ranging from decades to millennia. A focus on the 21st century thus fails to provide a complete picture of the consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on future sea-level rise and its long-term impacts. Here we identify the committed global mean sea-level rise until 2300 from historical emissions since 1750 and the currently pledged National Determined Contributions (NDC) under the Paris Agreement until 2030. Our results indicate that greenhouse gas emissions over this 280-y period result in about 1 m of committed global mean sea-level rise by 2300, with the NDC e..

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University of Melbourne Researchers

Grants

Awarded by German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety


Awarded by German Federal Ministry of Education and Research


Funding Acknowledgements

A.N., J.G., and C.-F.S. acknowledge support by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (16_II_148_Global_A_IMPACT). C.-F.S. further acknowledges support by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (01LN1711A). J.G. further acknowledges support by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (FKZ 3717181030).