Journal article

Climate War in the Middle East? Drought, the Syrian Civil War and the State of Climate-Conflict Research

Tobias Ide

Current Climate Change Reports | SPRINGER HEIDELBERG | Published : 2018

Abstract

Purpose of Review: This article reviews existing evidence for a climate-conflict link in Syria and examines how the respective debate reproduces three important shortcomings of climate-conflict research. Recent Findings: The potential climate-conflict link for Syria can be conceived of as a four-stage process, with various levels of scientific evidence and consensus existing for each stage: (1) climate change inducing the heavy 2006–2009 drought (plausible, but not proven); (2) massive loss of agricultural livelihoods, significantly attributable to the drought (supported by a majority of studies, but contested); (3) massive rural-to-urban migration triggered by livelihood loss in combination..

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University of Melbourne Researchers