Journal article

Observed and projected intra-seasonal variability of Australian monsoon rainfall

Aurel Moise, Ian Smith, Josephine R Brown, Robert Colman, Sugata Narsey

International Journal of Climatology | Wiley | Published : 2020


Indices derived from daily rainfall time series are used to measure “burst” features of the northern Australia monsoon, corresponding to one or more days of heavy rainfall. These indices include number of burst days, numbers and durations of burst events, and average intensity. The results using observational data show how these features can vary from one year to the next, and how they can vary from the station scale (Darwin) to the regional scale (northern Australia). The results from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model simulations under both historical and future greenhouse gas conditions have also been analysed and indicate how well models can capture these..

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Funding Acknowledgements

We acknowledge constructive comments on earlier versions of this paper by Drs Linden Ashcroft and Simon Grainger, and two anonymous reviewers. The research presented in this paper was jointly supported by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Australian Government's National Environmental Science Programme. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups (listed in Table 2 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. All CMIP5 model output used in this study can be obtained from the online database as listed at the PCMDI website: For further information regarding model and observational data, analysis methods and scripts contact the corresponding author.