Journal article

The forecasting of dynamical Ross River virus outbreaks: Victoria, Australia

Iain S Koolhof, Katherine B Gibney, Silvana Bettiol, Michael Charleston, Anke Wiethoelter, Anna-Lena Arnold, Patricia T Campbell, Peter J Neville, Phyo Aung, Tsubasa Shiga, Scott Carver, Simon M Firestone

EPIDEMICS | ELSEVIER | Published : 2020

Abstract

Ross River virus (RRV) is Australia's most epidemiologically important mosquito-borne disease. During RRV epidemics in the State of Victoria (such as 2010/11 and 2016/17) notifications can account for up to 30% of national RRV notifications. However, little is known about factors which can forecast RRV transmission in Victoria. We aimed to understand factors associated with RRV transmission in epidemiologically important regions of Victoria and establish an early warning forecast system. We developed negative binomial regression models to forecast human RRV notifications across 11 Local Government Areas (LGAs) using climatic, environmental, and oceanographic variables. Data were collected fr..

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