Identifying climate refugia for 30 Australian rainforest plant species, from the last glacial maximum to 2070

Abstract

Context: Climate refugia—areas that remain suitable for species during periods of climate disruption—have played an important role in species persistence over time. Identifying and protecting these refugia is a key climate change adaptation approach for conservation planning. Objectives: To identify climate refugia for Australian tropical/sub-tropical rainforest flora, from the Last Glacial Maximum to 2070. Methods: Habitat suitability models were calibrated for 30 species using Maxent, and projected onto climate data for: Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~ 22,000 ybp); mid-Holocene (MH, ~ 6000 ybp); current period; and 2070. The intersection of suitable habitat over consecutive periods was assess..