Profiling Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission and the resulting disease burden in the five highest tuberculosis burden countries

Abstract

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) control efforts are hampered by an imperfect understanding of TB epidemiology. The true age distribution of disease is unknown because a large proportion of individuals with active TB remain undetected. Understanding of transmission is limited by the asymptomatic nature of latent infection and the pathogen's capacity for late reactivation. A better understanding of TB epidemiology is critically needed to ensure effective use of existing and future control tools. Methods: We use an agent-based model to simulate TB epidemiology in the five highest TB burden countries - India, Indonesia, China, the Philippines and Pakistan - providing unique insights into patterns ..