Multi-Model and Network Inference Based on Ensemble Estimates: Avoiding the Madness of Crowds

Abstract

Recent progress in theoretical systems biology, applied mathematics and computational statistics allows us to compare quantitatively the performance of different candidate models at describing a particular biological system. Model selection has been applied with great success to problems where a small number — typically less than 10 — of models are compared, but recently studies have started to consider thousands and even millions of candidate models. Often, however, we are left with sets of models that are compatible with the data, and then we can use ensembles of models to make predictions. These ensembles can have very desirable characteristics, but as I show here are not guaranteed to im..