Forecasting the potential distribution of the invasive vegetable leafminer using ‘top-down’ and ‘bottom-up’ models

Abstract

The vegetable leafminer, Liriomyza sativae , is an internationally significant pest of vegetable and flower crops, that was detected for the first time on the Australian mainland in 2015. Due to the early stage of its invasion in Australia, it is unclear how climatic conditions are likely to support and potentially restrict the distribution of L. sativae as it expands into a novel range and threatens agricultural production regions. Here we predicted the future establishment potential of L. sativae in Australia, using both a novel ‘bottom-up’ process-based model and a popular ‘top-down’ correlative species distribution model (SDM), leveraging the unique strengths of each approach. Newly comp..