Journal article

Potential impact of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate change on Victorian wheat marketing grades and value

Chris J Korte, Patrick Wilson, Brian Kearns, Glenn James Fitzgerald, Joe F Panozzo, Cassandra K Walker, Brendan Christy, James G Nuttall, Roger D Armstrong, Michael Tausz, Garry J O'Leary



The potential impact of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) and future climate predicted for 2050 on wheat marketing grades and grain value was evaluated for Victoria, Australia. This evaluation was based on measured grain yield and quality from the Australian Grains FACE program and commercial grain delivery data from Victoria for five seasons (2009-13). Extrapolation of relationships derived from field experimentation under elevated [CO2] to the Victorian wheat crop indicated that 34% of grain would be downgraded by one marketing grade (range 1-62% depending on season and region) because of reduced protein concentration and that proportions of high-protein wheat grade..

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Funding Acknowledgements

Research within the AGFACE facility was supported by co-investment from the Grains Research and Development Corporation and the Australian Government Department of Agriculture and Water Resources in a collaboration between the Victoria State Department of Jobs, Precincts and Regions (DJPR) and the University of Melbourne (UM). We wish to acknowledge the crucial contributions of Dr Mahabubur Mollah for engineering expertise, Mr Russel Argall, Mrs M Munn and Mr Nathan Neumann (DJPR), Mr Peter Howie (UM) and the technical support team in running and maintaining the AGFACE facility, collecting key measurements and for sample processing. GrainCorp Ltd are acknowledged for making a subsample of company data available for this study. We thank an anonymous referee for helpful suggestions on an earlier manuscript.