Journal article

Global and regional impacts differ between transient and equilibrium warmer worlds

Andrew D King, Todd P Lane, Benjamin J Henley, Josephine R Brown

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP | Published : 2020

Abstract

under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. There has recently been interest in understanding the differences between specific levels of global warming, especially the Paris Agreement limits of 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, different model experiments1–3 have been used in these analyses under varying rates of increase in global-average temperature. Here, we use climate model simulations to show that, for a given global temperature, most land is significantly warmer in a rapidly warming (transient) case than in a quasi-equilibrium climate. This results in more than 90% of the world’s population experiencing a warmer local climate under transient global warming ..

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Grants

Awarded by Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Researcher Award


Awarded by Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes


Awarded by Australian Research Council Linkage project


Funding Acknowledgements

We thank R. Knutti for discussions. We acknowledge the support of staff at the NCI facility in Australia and staff at the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the US Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led the development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. A.D.K. is funded through an Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Researcher Award (DE180100638); T.P.L. through the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023); and B.J.H. through an Australian Research Council Linkage project (LP150100062).