The Scale-Up of the Global Surgical Workforce: Can Estimates be Achieved by 2030?
Kimberly M Daniels, Johanna N Riesel, Stephane Verguet, John G Meara, Mark G Shrime
World Journal of Surgery | SPRINGER | Published : 2020
BACKGROUND: The Lancet Commission on Global Surgery showed that countries with surgeon, anesthetist, and obstetrician (SAO) densities of 20-40 SAO/100,000 population were associated with improved health outcomes and recommended a global surgical workforce scale-up by 2030. Whether countries would be able to achieve such scale-up efforts in that time-frame is unknown. METHODS: A differential equation model was used to estimate the growth rate and number of SAO necessary for each country to reach the aforementioned SAO densities. Workforce data from Mexico and India were used to estimate achievable rates of SAO scale-up for middle- and low-income countries, respectively. Secular surgical growt..View full abstract