Time Trends in Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Across the BRICS An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Key Nations With Emerging Economies Using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Zhiyong Zou, Karly Cini, Bin Dong, Yinghua Ma, Jun Ma, David P Burgner, George C Patton
Circulation | LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS | Published : 2020
BACKGROUND: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) are emerging economies making up almost half the global population. We analyzed trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality across the BRICS and associations with age, period, and birth cohort. METHODS: Mortality estimates were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. We used age-period-cohort modeling to estimate cohort and period effects in CVD between 1992 and 2016. Period was defined as survey year, and period effects reflect population-wide exposure at a circumscribed point in time. Cohort effects are defined as differences in risks across birth cohort. Net drift (overall annual percentage change), loca..View full abstract
This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and China Scholarship Council to Dr Zou, National Health and Medical Research Council Fellowships to Drs Burgner and Patton. The authors thank all members of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, and all study groups involved in the GBD 2017 study.