Prospective impact of tobacco eradication and overweight and obesity eradication on future morbidity and health-adjusted life expectancy: Simulation study

Abstract

Background Interventions that reduce morbidity, in addition to mortality, warrant prioritisation. It is important to understand the magnitude of potential morbidity and health gains from changing risk factor distributions. We quantified the impact of tobacco compared with overweight/obesity eradication on future morbidity and health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) for the New Zealand population alive in 2011. Methods Business-as-usual (BAU) future smoking rates were set based on past falling rates, but we assumed no future change in Body Mass Index (BMI) distribution, given historic trends. Population impact fractions and the percentage reduction in incidence rates for 16 tobacco-related and..