An Activation-Clearance Model for Plasmodium vivax Malaria

Somya Mehra; James M McCaw; Mark B Flegg; Peter G Taylor; Jennifer A Flegg

Journal article

An Activation-Clearance Model for Plasmodium vivax Malaria

Somya Mehra, James M McCaw, Mark B Flegg, Peter G Taylor, Jennifer A Flegg

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology | Springer | Published : 2020

DOI: 10.1007/s11538-020-00706-1

Abstract

Malaria is an infectious disease with an immense global health burden. Plasmodium vivax is the most geographically widespread species of malaria. Relapsing infections, caused by the activation of liver-stage parasites known as hypnozoites, are a critical feature of the epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax. Hypnozoites remain dormant in the liver for weeks or months after inoculation, but cause relapsing infections upon activation. Here, we introduce a dynamic probability model of the activation-clearance process governing both potential relapses and the size of the hypnozoite reservoir. We begin by modelling activation-clearance dynamics for a single hypnozoite using a continuous-time Markov cha..

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University of Melbourne Researchers

Peter Taylor Author Mathematics and Statistics

Jennifer Flegg Author Mathematics and Statistics

James McCaw Author Mathematics and Statistics

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Grants

Awarded by Australian Research Council (ARC)

Awarded by ARC DECRA Fellowship

Awarded by ARC Laureate Fellowship

Funding Acknowledgements

S. Mehra acknowledges funding from the Australian Mathematical Sciences Institute (AMSI) Vacation Research Scholarships 2018/2019. J.M. McCaw's research is supported by the Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Project DP170103076. J.A. Flegg's research is supported by the ARC DECRA Fellowship DE160100227. P.G. Taylor's research is supported by the ARC Laureate Fellowship FL130100039 and the ARC Centre of Excellence for the Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers (ACEMS).