Journal article

Levee System Reliability Modeling: The Length Effect and Bayesian Updating

Kathryn Roscoe, Anca Hanea, Ruben Jongejan, Ton Vrouwenvelder

SAFETY | MDPI | Published : 2020


In levee system reliability, the length effect is the term given to the phenomenon that the longer the levee, the higher the probability that it will have a weak spot and fail. Quantitatively, it is the ratio of the segment failure probability to the cross-sectional failure probability. The literature is lacking in methods to calculate the length effect in levees, and often over-simplified methods are used. An efficient (but approximate) method, which we refer to as the modified outcrossing (MO) method, was developed for the system reliability model used in Dutch national flood risk analysis and for the provision of levee assessment tools, but it is poorly documented and its accuracy has not..

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University of Melbourne Researchers


Funding Acknowledgements

The financial support of this research by (i) the Dutch Technology Foundation STW, which is part of the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO), and which is partly funded by the Ministry of Economic Affairs, and (ii) the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment (Rijkswaterstaat).