Flattening the curve is not enough, we need to squash it: An explainer using a simple model

Abstract

Background Around the world there are examples of both effective control (e.g., South Korea, Japan) and less successful control (e.g., Italy, Spain, United States) of COVID-19 with dramatic differences in the consequent epidemic curves. Models agree that flattening the curve without controlling the epidemic completely is insufficient and will lead to an overwhelmed health service. A recent model, calibrated for the UK and US, demonstrated this starkly. Methods We used a simple compartmental deterministic model of COVID-19 transmission in Australia, to illustrate the dynamics resulting from shifting or flattening the curve versus completely squashing it. Results We find that when the reproduc..