Causal modelling in the Aviation Industry: An application for controlled flight into terrain

Abstract

In recent years, the Federal Aviation Authority and the Dutch Ministry of Transport have taken advantage of causal modelling techniques to investigate integrated safety in air traffic. Causal models are being developed with the purpose of allowing the regulator to make assessments of the effects of possible safety measures and to determine which measures will be most effective or efficient. Classical modelling techniques such as fault trees and event trees are unsuitable for this purpose because they are not able to represent 'soft' cause effect relations adequately. An example of a soft cause effect relationship is that between fatigue and mistakes. While fatigue increases the probability o..