Data assimilation using an ensemble of models: a hierarchical approach
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS | COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH | Published : 2020
One characteristic of biogeochemical models is uncertainty about their formulation. Data assimilation should take this uncertainty into account. A common approach is to use an ensemble of models. We must assign probabilities not only to the parameters of the models but also to the models themselves. The method of hierarchical modelling allows us to calculate these probabilities. This paper describes the approach, develops the algebra for the most common case and then applies it to the Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project (TransCom). We see that the discrimination among models is unrealistically strong, due to optimistic assumptions inherent in the underlying inversion. ..View full abstract
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Awarded by Australian Research Council
This research was supported by the Australian Research Council (grant no. DP1096309).