Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction of rainfall extremes in Australia

Abstract

Seasonal climate prediction to date has largely focussed on probabilistic forecasts for above- and below-average conditions in climate means. Here, we examine the possibility of making sub-seasonal to seasonal outlooks for daily-scale precipitation extremes in Australia. We first use observational data to show that significant relationships exist between climate modes, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and indices representing rainfall extremes across much of Australia. The strong observed teleconnections between climate modes and daily rainfall extremes suggest the potential for predictability on seasonal scales. The current Australian Bureau of Meteorology seasonal prediction syste..