Goldstein-Kac telegraph processes with random speeds: Path probabilities, likelihoods, and reported Lévy flights

Abstract

The Goldstein-Kac telegraph process describes the one-dimensional motion of particles with constant speed undergoing random changes in direction. Despite its resemblance to numerous real-world phenomena, the singular nature of the resultant spatial distribution of each particle precludes the possibility of any a posteriori empirical validation of this random-walk model from data. Here we show that by simply allowing for random speeds, the ballistic terms are regularized and that the diffusion component can be well-approximated via the unscented transform. The result is a computationally efficient yet robust evaluation of the full particle path probabilities and, hence, the parameter likeliho..