Journal article

A patient-level model to estimate lifetime health outcomes of patients with type 1 diabetes

An Tran-Duy, Josh Knight, Andrew Palmer, Dennis Petrie, Tom Lung, William Herman, Bjorn Eliasson, Ann-Marie Svensson, Philip Clarke

Diabetes Care | American Diabetes Association | Published : 2020

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To develop a patient-level simulation model for predicting lifetime health outcomes of patients with type 1 diabetes and as a tool for economic evaluation of type 1 diabetes treatment based on data from a large, longitudinal cohort. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Data for model development were obtained from the Swedish National Diabetes Register. We derived parametric proportional hazards models predicting the absolute risk of diabetes complications and death based on a wide range of clinical variables and history of complications. We used linear regression models to predict risk factor progression. Internal validation was performed, estimates of life expectancies for different age..

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Grants

Awarded by National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC)


Awarded by Australian Research Council


Awarded by National Heart Foundation


Awarded by Australian Research Council's Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research grant


Awarded by National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre at the University of Oxford grant


Funding Acknowledgements

The Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions funds the NDR. This study was supported by the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) (grant 1028335) and the Australian Research Council's Discovery Early Career Researcher Awards scheme (grant DE150100309). T.W.C.L. was supported by an NHMRC Early Career Fellowship and the National Heart Foundation Postdoctoral Fellowship (NHMRC APP1141392). This study was supported by an Australian Research Council's Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research grant (CE170100005 awarded to P.M.C.). P.M.C. is partly supported by a National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre at the University of Oxford grant (NIHR-BRC-1215-20008).