Journal article

Insights From CMIP6 for Australia's Future Climate

MR Grose, S Narsey, FP Delage, AJ Dowdy, M Bador, G Boschat, C Chung, JB Kajtar, S Rauniyar, MB Freund, K Lyu, H Rashid, X Zhang, S Wales, C Trenham, NJ Holbrook, T Cowan, L Alexander, JM Arblaster, S Power

Earth's Future | Wiley Open Access | Published : 2020


Outputs from new state-of-the-art climate models under the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) promise improvement and enhancement of climate change projections information for Australia. Here we focus on three key aspects of CMIP6: what is new in these models, how the available CMIP6 models evaluate compared to CMIP5, and their projections of the future Australian climate compared to CMIP5 focussing on the highest emissions scenario. The CMIP6 ensemble has several new features of relevance to policymakers and others, for example, the integrated matrix of socioeconomic and concentration pathways. The CMIP6 models show incremental improvements in the simulation of the clima..

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Awarded by Australian Research Council

Funding Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the support of Australian Government's National Environmental Science Programme's Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub and the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (Grant CE170100023). K.L. and X.Z. were also supported by Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), a joint research center between QNLM China and CSIRO Australia. We thank Martin Dix from CSIRO for calculating the ECS indices. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. CMIP5 and CMIP6 model outputs were made available with the assistance of resources from the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI), which is supported by the Australian Government. NOAA High Resolution SST data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their website at the data used in the analysis are publicly available and can be downloaded at