Urbanization affects peak timing, prevalence, and bimodality of influenza pandemics in Australia: Results of a census-calibrated model
Cameron Zachreson, Kristopher M Fair, Oliver M Cliff, Nathan Harding, Mahendra Piraveenan, Mikhail Prokopenko
SCIENCE ADVANCES | AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE | Published : 2018
We examine salient trends of influenza pandemics in Australia, a rapidly urbanizing nation. To do so, we implement state-of-the-art influenza transmission and progression models within a large-scale stochastic computer simulation, generated using comprehensive Australian census datasets from 2006, 2011, and 2016. Our results offer a simulation-based investigation of a population's sensitivity to pandemics across multiple historical time points and highlight three notable trends in pandemic patterns over the years: increased peak prevalence, faster spreading rates, and decreasing spatiotemporal bimodality. We attribute these pandemic trends to increases in two key quantities indicative of urb..View full abstract
Awarded by Australian Research Council
This work was supported by the Australian Research Council Discovery Project DP160102742.