Journal article

Projected 21st century changes in extreme wind-wave events

Alberto Meucci, Ian R Young, Mark Hemer, Ebru Kirezci, Roshanka Ranasinghe

Science Advances | American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | Published : 2020


We describe an innovative approach to estimate global changes in extreme wave conditions by 2100, as a result of projected climate change. We generate a synthetic dataset from an ensemble of wave models forced by independent climate simulation winds, enhancing statistical confidence associated with projected changes in extreme wave conditions. Under two IPCC representative greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), we find that the magnitude of a 1 in 100-year significant wave height (Hs) event increases by 5 to 15% over the Southern Ocean by the end of the 21st century, compared to the 1979–2005 period. The North Atlantic shows a decrease at low to mid latitudes (≈5 to 15%) and ..

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Awarded by Australian Research Council

Funding Acknowledgements

I.R.Y. acknowledges the support of the Australian Research Council through grant DP160100738. M.H. is supported by the Australian Commonwealth National Environmental Science Program Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub