Journal article

A novel algorithm for calculating transition potential in cellular automata models of land-use/cover change

Majid Shadman Roodposhti, Jagannath Aryal, Brett A Bryan



Despite recent advances in quantifying land-use/cover change (LUCC) transition potential, transition rules are often not transparent and uncertainty is rarely made explicit. Here, we introduce DoTRules—a dictionary of trusted rules—as a transparent alternative to calculate transition potential in cellular automata models. Rules relate LUCC variables to the observed historical changes. Shannon entropy is calculated to assess the uncertainty of each rule, and the most trusted rules are used to project future LUCC. DoTRules produces rule-level uncertainty estimates, which can be mapped. In a case study of the Ahvaz region of Iran, the overall accuracy of LUCC simulation calibrated using DoTRule..

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University of Melbourne Researchers


Awarded by CSIRO Australian Sustainable Agriculture Scholarship (ASAS)

Funding Acknowledgements

This research was supported by CSIRO Australian Sustainable Agriculture Scholarship (ASAS) as a top-up scholarship to Majid Shadman, a PhD scholar in the Discipline of Geography and Spatial Sciences, School of Technology, Environments and Design at the University of Tasmania (RT109121). BAB was supported by Deakin University. We thank three anonymous reviewers for their suggestions for improving the manuscript.