Simulating future public health benefits of tobacco control interventions: A systematic review of models

Abstract

Background To prioritise tobacco control interventions, simulating their health impacts is valuable. We undertook a systematic review of tobacco intervention simulation models to assess model structure and input variations that may render model outputs non-comparable. Methods We applied a Medline search with keywords intersecting modelling and tobacco. Papers were limited to those modelling health outputs (eg, mortality, health-adjusted life years), and at least two of cancer, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Data were extracted for each simulation model with ≥3 arising papers, including: model type, untimed or with time steps and trends in business-as-usual (BAU) tobacco prevalence ..