Journal article
The warm and extremely dry spring in 2015 in Tasmania contained the fingerprint of human influence on the climate
Michael R Grose, Mitchell T Black, Guomin Wang, Andrew D King, Pandora Hope, David J Karoly
JOURNAL OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE EARTH SYSTEMS SCIENCE | CSIRO PUBLISHING | Published : 2019
DOI: 10.1071/ES19011
Abstract
Tasmania saw a warm and very dry spring and summer in 2015–16, including a record dry October, which had significant, wide-ranging impacts. A previous study using two probabilistic event-attribution techniques found a small but statistically significant increase in the likelihood of the record dry October due to anthropogenic influence. Given the human signal was less clear amid natural variability for rainfall compared to temperature extremes, here we provided further evidence and context for this finding. An additional attribution method supported the October rainfall finding, and the median attributable risk to human influence in the three methods was ~25%, 48% and 75%. The results sugges..
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Funding Acknowledgements
This research was supported by the Australian Government's National Environmental Science Programme Earth System and Climate Change hub (NESP ESCC). We would like to thank Weather@Home ANZ, which involves collaboration with Oxford University, the Met Office, NIWA in New Zealand, and the Tasmanian Partnership for Advanced Computing. We thank the POAMA seasonal forecasting group for providing access to POAMA model outputs. We acknowledge the WCRP Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP5 and thank the climate modelling groups for making available their model output. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 data were provided by the NOAA/CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center in Boulder (USA). This research did not receive any specific funding.