Journal article

A Brief Analysis of Conceptual Model Structure Uncertainty Using 36 Models and 559 Catchments

WJM Knoben, JE Freer, MC Peel, KJA Fowler, RA Woods

WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION | Published : 2020

Abstract

The choice of hydrological model structure, that is, a model's selection of states and fluxes and the equations used to describe them, strongly controls model performance and realism. This work investigates differences in performance of 36 lumped conceptual model structures calibrated to and evaluated on daily streamflow data in 559 catchments across the United States. Model performance is compared against a benchmark that accounts for the seasonality of flows in each catchment. We find that our model ensemble struggles to beat the benchmark in snow-dominated catchments. In most other catchments model structure equifinality (i.e., cases where different models achieve similar high efficiency ..

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Grants

Awarded by EPSRCWISE CDT


Awarded by Australian Research Council


Funding Acknowledgements

We are grateful for the detailed comments provided by the Editors, James Craig, and three anonymous reviewers, which have helped us substantially improve this paper. This workwas funded by the EPSRCWISE CDT, Grant Reference EP/L016214/1. W. K.'s visit to the University of Melbourne was cofunded by the Melbourne School of Engineering Visiting Fellows scheme. M. P. is the recipient of an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (FT120100130).