Does risk management make financial markets riskier?

Abstract

Value-at-risk figures are calculated on the basis of historical market volatility and capital requirements are determined on the basis of these calculations. A rise in historical market volatility leads to an increase of the regulatory capital requirement. If market participants engage in forced selling to decrease risk exposure to meet imposed capital requirements, volatility may be amplified. Risk management on the individual firm level may thus actually lead to an increase of market volatility in the economy as a whole and the regulatory aim to limit the chances of systemic effects is undermined. We present an informal exposition of this argument as well as supporting empirical and anecdo..