Journal article

The long-run effects of noncommunicable disease shocks

Tianxin Pan, Michael Palmer, Ajay Mahal, Peter Annear, Barbara McPake

HEALTH ECONOMICS | WILEY | Published : 2020


The health shocks literature typically does not take into account the temporal patterns of loss since the time of the shock. This limits understanding of the long‐run impact of health shocks and the capacity of individuals to cope over time. This study estimates the dynamic effects of a noncommunicable disease shock on the economic well‐being of working‐age individuals in China up to 6 years after onset. We find that after a period of temporal loss, individuals and their families can insure consumption against the average noncommunicable disease shock over the long‐run. We observe significant heterogeneity according to the persistence of the disease, value of household wealth, and health ins..

View full abstract


Funding Acknowledgements

Tianxin Pan received Melbourne International Research Scholarship from the University of Melbourne. We gratefully acknowledge the China Family Panel Studies team for providing data and information in using the datasets. We appreciate useful comments and suggestions from Dennis Petrie and two anonymous reviewers.