Journal article

Validation of Microsimulation Models against Alternative Model Predictions and Long-Term Colorectal Cancer Incidence and Mortality Outcomes of Randomized Controlled Trials

Jie-Bin Lew, Marjolein JE Greuter, Michael Caruana, Emily He, Joachim Worthington, D James St John, Finlay A Macrae, Eleonora Feletto, Veerle MH Coupe, Karen Canfell

Medical Decision Making | SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC | Published : 2020

Abstract

Background. This study aimed to assess the validity of 2 microsimulation models of colorectal cancer (CRC), Policy1-Bowel and ASCCA.Methods. The model-estimated CRC risk in population subgroups with different health statuses, "dwell time" (time from incident precancerous polyp to symptomatically detected CRC), and reduction in symptomatically detected CRC incidence after a one-time complete removal of polyps and/or undetected CRC were compared with published findings from 3 well-established models (MISCAN, CRC-SPIN, and SimCRC). Furthermore, 6 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that provided screening using a guaiac fecal occult blood test (Funen trial, Burgundy trial, and Minnesota Colon C..

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