Health and Economic Effects of COVID-19 control in Australia: Modelling and quantifying the payoffs of ‘hard’ versus ‘soft’ lockdown

Abstract

Objective(s) Australia requires high quality evidence to optimise likely health and economy outcomes to effectively manage the current resurgence of COVID-19. We hypothesise that the most stringent social distancing (SD) measures (100% of level in Australia in April 2020) deliver better public health and economy outcomes. Design ‘Fit-for-purpose’ (individual-based and compartment) models were used to simulate the effects of different SD and detection strategies on Australian COVID-19 infections and the economy from March to July 2020. Public reported COVID-19 data were used to estimate model parameters. Main outcome measures Public health and economy outcomes for multiple social distancing l..