Effect of weather forecast errors on fire growth model projections

Abstract

Fire management agencies use fire behaviour simulation tools to predict the potential spread of a fire in both risk planning and operationally during wildfires. These models are generally based on underlying empirical or quasi-empirical relations and rarely are uncertainties considered. Little attention has been given to the quality of the input data used during operational fire predictions. We examined the extent to which error in weather forecasts can affect fire simulation results. The study was conducted using data representing the State of Victoria in south-eastern Australia, including grassland and forest conditions. Two fire simulator software packages were used to compare fire growth..