Warming Patterns Affect El Nino Diversity in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models
Mandy B Freund, Josephine R Brown, Benjamin J Henley, David J Karoly, Jaclyn N Brown
Journal of Climate | AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC | Published : 2020
AbstractGiven the consequences and global significance of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events it is essential to understand the representation of El Niño diversity in climate models for the present day and the future. In recent decades, El Niño events have occurred more frequently in the central Pacific (CP). Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events have increased in intensity. However, the processes and future implications of these observed changes in El Niño are not well understood. Here, the frequency and intensity of El Niño events are assessed in models from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6), and results are compared to extended instrumental..View full abstract
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Awarded by Australian Research Council Linkage Project
We thank Eun-Pa Lim and Kavina Dayal for their helpful comments on earlier versions of the manuscript. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups (listed in Table A1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model outputs. Josephine Brown and Benjamin Henley are affiliated ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes. DavidKaroly is supported through funding fromtheEarth Systems and Climate Change Hub of the Australian Government's National Environmental Science Program. Benjamin Henley receives funds from an Australian Research Council Linkage Project (LP150100062) with Melbourne Water, the Victorian Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.