Journal article

Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models

Josephine R Brown, Chris M Brierley, Soon-Il An, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Samantha Stevenson, Charles JR Williams, Qiong Zhang, Anni Zhao, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C Brady, Deepak Chandan, Roberta D'Agostino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, Ryouta O'ishi, Bette L Otto-Bliesner Show all

Climate of the Past | COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH | Published : 2020


El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest mode of interannual climate variability in the current climate, influencing ecosystems, agriculture, and weather systems across the globe, but future projections of ENSO frequency and amplitude remain highly uncertain. A comparison of changes in ENSO in a range of past and future climate simulations can provide insights into the sensitivity of ENSO to changes in the mean state, including changes in the seasonality of incoming solar radiation, global average temperatures, and spatial patterns of sea surface temperatures. As a comprehensive set of coupled model simulations is now available for both palaeoclimate time slices (the Last Glacial..

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University of Melbourne Researchers


Awarded by JPI-Belmont-funded PACMEDY programme

Awarded by National Research Foundation of Korea

Awarded by UK NERC

Awarded by Swedish Research Council (VR)

Awarded by Arctic Challenge for Sustainability (ArCS) project



Awarded by US National Science Foundation (NSF)

Awarded by Russian State Assignment Project

Awarded by Russian Science Foundation (RSF)

Funding Acknowledgements

This research has been supported by the JPI-Belmont-funded PACMEDY programme (grant nos. NE/P006752/1, ANR-15-JCLI-0003-01, and BMBF 01LP1607A); the National Research Foundation of Korea (grant no. NRF-2018R1A5A1024958); the UK NERC (grant nos. NE/S009736/1 and NE/P013279/1); the Swedish Research Council (VR projects 2013-06476, 2017-04232, and 2016-07213); the Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU programme) from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan; the Arctic Challenge for Sustainability (ArCS) project (grant no. JPMXD1300000000), JSPS KAKENHI (grant no. 17H06104) and MEXT KAKENHI (grant no. 17H06323); the US National Science Foundation (NSF) under cooperative agreement no. 1852977; the Russian State Assignment Project 0148-2019-0009; and the Russian Science Foundation (RSF) (grant no. 20-17-00190).