Journal article

Proportional multistate lifetable modelling of preventive interventions: concepts, code and worked examples

Tony Blakely, Rob Moss, James Collins, Anja Mizdrak, Ankur Singh, Natalie Carvalho, Nick Wilson, Nicholas Geard, Abraham Flaxman

International Journal of Epidemiology | OXFORD UNIV PRESS | Published : 2020


Burden of Disease studies-such as the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study-quantify health loss in disability-adjusted life-years. However, these studies stop short of quantifying the future impact of interventions that shift risk factor distributions, allowing for trends and time lags. This methodology paper explains how proportional multistate lifetable (PMSLT) modelling quantifies intervention impacts, using comparisons between three tobacco control case studies [eradication of tobacco, tobacco-free generation i.e. the age at which tobacco can be legally purchased is lifted by 1 year of age for each calendar year) and tobacco tax]. We also illustrate the importance of epidemiological spec..

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