Journal article

Predicting population extinction in lattice-based birth-death-movement models

Stuart T Johnston, Matthew J Simpson, Edmund J Crampin

Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences | The Royal Society | Published : 2020


The question of whether a population will persist or go extinct is of key interest throughout ecology and biology. Various mathematical techniques allow us to generate knowledge regarding individual behaviour, which can be analysed to obtain predictions about the ultimate survival or extinction of the population. A common model employed to describe population dynamics is the lattice-based random walk model with crowding (exclusion). This model can incorporate behaviour such as birth, death and movement, while including natural phenomena such as finite size effects. Performing sufficiently many realizations of the random walk model to extract representative population behaviour is computation..

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University of Melbourne Researchers