Quantitative Epidemiology: A Bayesian Perspective

Abstract

Influenza inflicts a substantial burden on society but accurate and timely forecasts of seasonal epidemics can help mitigate this burden by informing interventions to reduce transmission. Recently, both statistical (correlative) and mechanistic (causal) models have been used to forecast epidemics. However, since mechanistic models are based on the causal process underlying the epidemic they are poised to be more useful in the design of intervention strategies. This study investigate approaches to improve epidemic forecasting using mechanistic models. In particular, it reports on efforts to improve a forecasting system targeting seasonal influenza epidemics in major cities across Australia. ..