Thesis / Dissertation

Exploring the statistical aspects of expert elicited experiments

Hetti Arachchige Sameera Gayan Dharmarathne, Andrew Robinson (ed.)

Published : 2020

Abstract

We explore the statistical aspects of some of the known methods of analysing experts’ elicited data to identify potential improvements on the accuracy of their outcomes in this study. It can be identified that potential correlation structures induced in the probability predictions by the characteristics of experimental designs are ignored in computing experts’ Brier scores. We show that the accuracy of the standard error estimates of experts’ Brier scores can be improved by incorporating the within-question correlations of probability predictions in the second chapter of this thesis. Missing probability predictions of events can impact on assessing the prediction accuracy of experts using di..

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University of Melbourne Researchers