Wind-wave extremes in a changing climate from atmosphere and wave model ensembles

Abstract

Marine offshore structures and operations, as well as coastline defences, rely on accurate estimates of the design sea state, defined as the maximum significant wave height which can be expected over an N year period. To find design sea state estimates, Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) statistical approaches are commonly used. However, due to the paucity of data available for extreme sea states, and the consequent challenges in modelling such phenomena, design sea state estimates are characterized by large confidence limits, which further complicate strategies and policies for resilient design of marine structures and operations. Furthermore, an additional challenge is posed by a changing climat..