Journal article

Coronavirus Disease Model to Inform Transmission -Reducing Measures and Health System Preparedness, Australia

Robert Moss, James Wood, Damien Brown, Freya M Shearer, Andrew J Black, Kathryn Glass, Allen C Cheng, James M McCaw, Jodie McVernon

EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES | CENTERS DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION | Published : 2020

Abstract

The ability of health systems to cope with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases is of major concern. In preparation, we used clinical pathway models to estimate healthcare requirements for COVID-19 patients in the context of broader public health measures in Australia. An age- and risk-stratified transmission model of COVID-19 demonstrated that an unmitigated epidemic would dramatically exceed the capacity of the health system of Australia over a prolonged period. Case isolation and contact quarantine alone are insufficient to constrain healthcare needs within feasible levels of expansion of health sector capacity. Overlaid social restrictions must be applied over the course of the epidemic ..

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Grants

Awarded by Australian Partnership for Preparedness Research on Infectious Disease Emergencies (APPRISE)


Awarded by Supporting Participatory Evidence use for the Control of Transmissible Diseases in our Region Using Modelling (SPECTRUM)


Awarded by NHMRC Principal Research Fellowship


Funding Acknowledgements

This work was directly funded by the Australian Government Department of Health. R.M. is supported by 2 National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Centres of Research Excellence, the Australian Partnership for Preparedness Research on Infectious Disease Emergencies (APPRISE; grant no. GNT1116530), and Supporting Participatory Evidence use for the Control of Transmissible Diseases in our Region Using Modelling (SPECTRUM; grant no. GNT1170960). J.M. is supported by a NHMRC Principal Research Fellowship (grant no. GNT1117140).