Journal article

Projected impact of COVID-19 mitigation strategies on hospital services in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

Zachary Fowler, Ellie Moeller, Lina Roa, Isaac Deneb Castaneda-Alcantara, Tarsicio Uribe-Leitz, John G Meara, Arturo Cervantes-Trejo

PLoS One | PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE | Published : 2020

Abstract

Evidence-based models may assist Mexican government officials and health authorities in determining the safest plans to respond to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in the most-affected region of the country, the Mexico City Metropolitan Area. This study aims to present the potential impacts of COVID-19 in this region and to model possible benefits of mitigation efforts. The COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics was used to estimate the probable evolution of COVID-19 in three scenarios: (i) no social distancing, (ii) social distancing in place at 50% effectiveness, and (iii) social distancing in place at 60% effectiveness. Projections of the number of inpatient hospital..

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