Journal article
Reliable hourly streamflow forecasting with emphasis on ephemeral rivers
M Li, DE Robertson, QJ Wang, JC Bennett, JM Perraud
Journal of Hydrology | ELSEVIER | Published : 2021
Abstract
Ephemeral rivers pose considerable challenges for hydrological forecasters. A staged error model is devised for hourly streamflow forecasting with emphasis on ephemeral rivers. Apart from key components such as bias-correction, autoregressive updating and mixed Gaussian residual distributions, the model treats both observed and simulated zero flows as censored data. This assumption requires additional novel parameter estimation and ensemble generation methods. When inferring error model parameters by maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), the likelihood is derived to account for simulated and observed streamflow taking zero or non-zero values using data censoring. MLE is trialed to be replaced..
View full abstractGrants
Funding Acknowledgements
This research has been supported by the Water Information Research and Development Alliance (WIRADA) between the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Land & Water. We thank Prasantha Hapuarachchi for supplying data and for comments on the method. This work was conducted on the traditional lands of the Noongar people and the Boonwurrung and Wurundjeri peoples of the Kulin Nation. We acknowledge their continuing custodianship of these lands and the rivers that flow through them, and pay our respects to their elders, past and present. We acknowledge the traditional custodians of the catchments and rivers used in this study.