Calibrating Hourly Precipitation Forecasts with Daily Observations
C Cattoen, DE Robertson, JC Bennett, QJ Wang, TK Carey-Smith
Journal of Hydrometeorology | AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC | Published : 2020
Calibrated high-temporal-resolution precipitation forecasts are desirable for a range of applications, for example, flood prediction in fast-rising rivers. However, high-temporal-resolution precipitation observations may not be available to support the establishment of calibration methods, particularly in regions with low population density or in developing countries. We present a new method to produce calibrated hourly precipitation ensemble forecasts from daily observations. Precipitation forecasts are taken from a high-resolution convective-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model run at the hourly time step. We conduct three experiments to develop the new calibration method: (i) ca..View full abstract
Awarded by New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment Natural Hazards Research Platform
The authors gratefully acknowledge various parties for assistance in providing data (in particular the Greater Wellington Regional Council). This research was funded by the New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment Natural Hazards Research Platform under contract C05X0907/Subcontract 2017-NIW-03-NHRP; by NIWA through the Resilience to Hazards Research Programme. The authors wish to acknowledge the contribution of NeSI to the results of this research. New Zealand's national compute and analytics services and team are supported by the New Zealand eScience Infrastructure (NeSI) and funded jointly by NeSI's collaborator institutions and through the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (http://www.nesi.org.nz).Figures in this paper were produced using the Gramm MATLAB package (Morel 2018). The editor and the two reviewers are gratefully acknowledged for their valuable and thoughtful feedback.